Baseball is back.  Pitchers and catchers are reporting to spring training.  Legions of fans (and fantasy gurus) are dusting off their allegiances and refreshing their commitment to following their hometown team's fate for a grueling stretch of 162 games.  As a lifelong Cubs fan, I've learned that off-field affinity bears little to absolutely no impact upon on-field success.  The world of sports is a rare arena in which consumer dialogue and endorsement of a brand fails to significantly impact that brand's "success" (as measured by victories, not dollars). 

So, in this context, just how talkable is victory?  How "engaged" do consumers remain in their favorite sports brand if the team hasn't given them an on-field justification to stay engaged?

With an off-season that provides countless rivalrous entertainment options, from the Super Bowl to Jersey Shore, baseball is often forgotten, shoved to the sidelines until fans have a reason to care yet again; until a blank slate and fresh start offer a new glimmer of "this year could be the year" hope. 

However, some fans do engage in off-season dialogues.  And some offseason dialogue is significantly more robust than others.   Many who drive the off-season conversation are die-hards (brand evangelists).  A good handful find their interest and conversation stirred back into action by the exciting announcement of an impending acquisition or the next great hope who can carry their team to victory. 

The following chart attempts to uncover a correlation between on-field victory and off-season dialogue across online (blog) channels.
 
Comparative Graph of 2009 MLB Regular Season Victories and Offseason Blog posts (in Jan/Feb 2010) - Yankees v. Phillies v. Cubs v. White Sox + "Baseball"

• New York Yankees - 103 regular season victories (World Series champion); 112.22 blog posts/day= 1.08 blog post/victory
• Philadelphia Phillies - 93 regular season victories (World Series loser); 45.53 blog posts/day = 0.489 blog post/victory
• Chicago Cubs - (83 regular season victories, no playoff presence); 53.7 blog posts/day = 0.646 blog post/victory
• Chicago White Sox - (79 regular season victories, no playoff presence); 36.33 blog posts/day = 0.459 blog post/victory

Findings:

• Although the World Series winners (Yankees) were the most talked about team, simply making the World Series (Phillies) doesn't guarantee more off-season dialogue than other teams
• The Chicago Cubs, lacking a postseason appearance, drove significantly more off-season dialogue than the World Series runner-up Phillies

Conclusions:

• Building a truly talkable brand requires more than just short-term salience (i.e. a World Series appearance)
• Building a truly talkable brand requires building a deep, ongoing connection/relevance in shaping the identity/lives of its consumers (fans) - which the perennially-losing though deeply-revered Cubs have clearly achieved
• Although the Philadelphia Phillies are the "oldest continuous, one-name, one-city franchise in all of professional American sports" (thanks, Wikipedia) - and have appeared in back-to-back World Series (actually winning in 2008) - short-term salience alone - aka "buzz" - is not enough to sustain talkability
  

Considerations/Limitations:

• Please note, the sample size is painfully small and insignificant, as it features just four teams and tracks off-season dialogue over just one season.
• It also doesn't account for varying rates of salient alternative off-season entertainment options among each of the four local markets.  
• Nor does it account for "control seasons," as postseason appearances could unfairly drive an increase in off-season dialogue, simply for prolonging the period of salience.  
• It fails to account for potential errors/limitations in the freeware IceRocket.com software used to generate the graph
• Additionally, some might argue that "victories" is the incorrect metric by which we measure "success" - if truly trying to find similarities/parallels between a sports "brand" and a traditional consumer "brand" - the evaluative metrics ought to be ticket sales, ad revenue, TV revenue, food/beverage revenue, etc. - to truly understand the impact of talkability on the brand's bottom line.
  

FINAL 2009 MLB REGULAR SEASON STANDINGS - Source: ESPN.com


Comparative Off-season Dialogues - Brand Name + Baseball - Last 60 Days - Source: IceRocket.com (Blog posts only)



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1907 Men's Advertisment

We live in a post-TiVo era.  Every schmo with a Twitter handle tells you how the world is changing.  Social Media's rising!  Two-way dialogues!  But, advertising isn't dead.  Smart advertising, that is.  It's simply changed form, leveraging insights and best practices from Word of Mouth.

A recent Old Spice spot is a jolt to the jugular, breaking the "fourth wall" to spur direct dialogue with its Ikea-computer-chair-sitting consumer.  Currently, it is infinitely talked about and recommended on Twitter.  It has been viewed over a million times on YouTube.

It's a reminder of what great ads should be.  Unforgettable.  Fully-articulating and linking the product's functional and emotional benefits, in a way that you want to keep watching, appreciating and sharing, over and over again.  Cleverly targeted to the product purchaser (the woman in the house), it still vehemently appeals to the product user (the man).  By its very nature, it demands to be reckoned with.  The ad reminds tech-savvy, video/photo sharing, self-sufficient, 21st century consumers that a larger, more powerful, and more expert force exists [the brand], able to create an experience and deliver a tangible benefit [the product] capable of improving their lives.  The ad empowers the brand to spark and lead a dialogue with its consumers.  It is a perfect example of how advertising and word of mouth work hand in hand. 

It is reminiscent and perhaps inspired by the same consumer insights that sparked the recent (and highly talkable) Dos Equis "Most Interesting Man in the World" formula:

1. Present holier than thou immortal to couch-slumping Americans.
2. Show him leading an extraordinary, ridiculous, adventurous life in a tongue in-cheek way that incites excitement and laughter.
3. Articulate that while you, mere consumer, will never be as immortal as he, you can take a first step to becoming like him. 
4. Insert product and articulate or imply its benefits here.
5. Button up ad and reinforce recall of brand through clever tagline ("Stay Thirsty, My Friends") or non-lyrical jingle (the Old Spice whistle)
   
   

This ad, like the Dos Equis spot, effectively addresses the fact that consumers know they are being marketed to, and are resistant to it.  Rather than trying to manipulate them into coveting something they don't have, it humors them into acknowledging it.  It doesn't claim to elevate their lives to a wonderful new frontier.  It implies it.  And it tells you, directly, that it implies it.  No, but seriously, go check the Brand's YouTube page.  Transparency of intention.  Thus sparking a conversation.





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Don't be fooled by the Kindle.  Amazon is not a gadget maker.  Amazon has never been a gadget maker.  Amazon made its name as a low-overhead internet retailer that could ship you the stuff you want, when you want it, with relatively little hassle.  Only problem, is that the "stuff" Amazon once became so famous for shipping, no longer needs to be shipped. 

Just ten years ago, Amazon ousted local bookstore owners to the same classified newspaper sections that EZ-Pass-ousted toll-booth workers were already perusing.  The brand now finds itself grasping to retain its leadership role in enabling Americans to read.  At the end of the day, Amazon is more than happy to be a mere "App" on a Smartphone desktop, as long as users can buy books through that desktop. 

As Blackberry moves to capture this shift, be sure to keep a lookout for promotions advertising Kindle for iPhone.  And Kindle for iPad.  You can bet they'll be coming soon.

The Kindle, in hindsight, will likely be viewed as never having actually posed a serious threat to Blackberrys, iPhones, Droids and other leading one-stop-shop mobile devices.  Unlike a "TiVo," Amazon was not seriously seeking nor expecting to create and maintain ownership of a new category.  Instead, one might infer that the long-term strategy behind launching the Kindle was simply to enjoy first-to-market status, while leveraging this status to eventually establish an Amazonian window through which consumers would ultimately purchase. 

The bigger question remains, on whose desktop will the Kindle ultimately sit?  Microsoft's?  Google's?  Apple's?  When that answer is determined, Amazon prays you'll be reading about it (and paying to read about it) through their window.

 

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